How Alabama football won the NCAA championship

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It was halftime of the 2018 NCAA Football Championship and Alabama was trailing Georgia by a score of 13-0. As the second half started, the Alabama quarterback, Jalen Hurts, was on the bench. Going into the game, Hurts was 26-2 over the previous two seasons. The new quarterback to start the second half for Alabama was unknown freshman Tua Tagovailoa.

In sixteen seasons as head coach at Alabama Saban’s teams had an astonishing 88% winning percentage, won six national championships, and mixed in two undefeated seasons. Anything short of a national championship is a failed season at Alabama. Alabama football knew only the upside.

Alabama starts tracking athletes well before they enter high school and a single recruiting day at an Alabama football game (which I have attended) could include 400 high school players and their families with choice seats and field passes. All this to land a few dozen incoming freshmen each year. On the other end of things, it has been common for half or more of Alabama’s twenty-two starting players to be drafted into the NFL each year.

So, how could Coach Saban pull Hurts at halftime? Despite all the success the team and Hurts had going into the game, Alabama was trailing at halftime and was ineffective on offense, barely recording positive yardage in the half. Time for a huge, but calculated risk: all part of being blinded by the upside.

Tua came in to start the second half and led the team to one of the most amazing high-stakes comebacks in all of sports. Highlights included a last-minute touchdown pass to seal the victory. 

Did Saban know Tua was capable of such things? Tua had to climb his way up from the bottom of the class just to be the number two quarterback. And remember, just to get on the team at Alabama, you had to be an all-world high school quarterback. Did Alabama and Tua get a little lucky in that second half? Sure, but that’s sports.

Saban was wiling to live with the consequences and worst-case outcomes of his decision. It would have been easy to leave Hurts in the game and if Alabama lost, there would be little criticism of Hurts, Saban, or Alabama football beyond what a great game Georgia played and how they had bottled up the Alabama offense.

Saban understood the downside of “going for it.” If Alabama lost, Saban would never be forgiven for pulling Hurts. Forget about the wins and national championship trophies in the Alabama athletic center. He would have been run out of town and into a witness-protection program.

Saban wanted the upside of a win, but more importantly, he understood and was willing to accept the downside of his decision.

Afterword

The year after the dramatic Tua-led Alabama win in the 2018 National Championship, Tua was named the starting quarterback and Hurts was the backup. To advance to the playoffs and have a shot at back-to-back national championships, the 12-0 Alabama team needed too win the SEC championship game. Midway through the game, with Alabama trailing, Tua went down with an injury. What happened next? You guessed it, Hurts came in and led Alabama to a wild come-from-behind victory and a spot in the playoff.

Both Tua and Hurts went on to successful NFL careers. Hurts and his Philadelphia Eagles had the best record in the NFL in 2022 and lost in the Super Bowl by a field goal. He subsequently signed one of the largest contracts in NFL history. In July 2024, Tua signed the largest contract for a quarterback in the history of the Miami Dolphins football team.

After the departures of Tua and Hurts, Saban added his sixth national championship a year later and then announced his retirement in January 2024.

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