Google X, the Moonshot Factory

Going for the Moonshot. Despite claims made by sponsors and participants, many moonshots are not moonshots at all, but are incremental improvements on existing technologies. Also, Moonshots are not called “Freeshots,” and the potential financial, reputational, and other collateral damage from a failed moonshot should be considered. In setting up a “ moonshot factory,”Google X has emulated the approach of Thomas Edison by trying to create genius on a production line.

Going for the Moonshot is one of the Seven Deadly Stupidities.

Our goal: 10x impact on the world’s most intractable problems, not just 10% improvement. From the X website

Gee, who wouldn’t want to be part of that company? As we start our discussion of X, it seems that X has outdone Edison in the business and marketing department. Announcing to the world such a lofty goal, openly disclosing the various projects underway, and speaking in cryptic language about how X is doing financially. The perfect illustration of the fact that going for moonshots is, well, stupid.

Astro Teller – yes, that’s his real name -- is the head of X. I would label Teller as an “evangelist of failure.” Teller gives TED talks, guest lectures, and is on radio and television talking about X and its culture. A culture that encourages killing projects that will not work. “We shut down more than 100 projects last year,” is a typical boast from Teller.

Wow, these guys must be tough.  Then again, one of the projects shut down was a set of contact lenses with built-in glucose monitors and another was teleportation (yeah, like on Star Trek).

Another one was Project Loon, which used a series of high-altitude balloons to bring basic internet service to developing countries. A noble project indeed, but there is more to a moonshot than a new technology. One of the drivers of Loon’s shutdown (after eight years of trying) had nothing to do with technology and everything to do with how people live.

The same illiteracy and societal barriers that stop pharmaceutical companies from airdropping life-saving medicines to developing countries plagued Loon. If the population cannot figure out how to use the medicine or follow the instructions to get on the internet, the effort is wasted.

Let’s go to an abstract example. In his book, Summer of ’49, David Halberstam chronicles the 1949 New York Yankees baseball team.  At that point in their history, all the Yankees did was win. In the ten seasons from 1943 to 1953, the Yankees won the world series seven times. In the book Halberstam gives us an inkling of what it was like to live in a winning culture and one that did not celebrate failure. He describes what happened when an outfielder dove for a ball, missed it, and returned to the dugout at the end of an inning. There were no pats on the back or chants of “nice try.” Nothing was said at all. What needed to be said was already understood, you should have caught it.

            Staying with baseball for a minute, what about Bob Gibson? Gibson pitched in 1960s and 1970s, is a hall of famer, and considered by any baseball fan to be among best pitchers ever. In the last inning of his last game in September 1975, Gibson gave up a grand slam to Chicago Cub Pete LaCock. LaCock recalls Gibson screaming as LaCock was rounding the bases. LaCock thought Gibson was going to attack him. Some 10 years later, Gibson faced LaCock in an old-timer’s game. Gibson promptly drilled LaCock in the back with a fastball. Gibson shouted at LaCock, “I’ve been waiting years to do that.”

Is the team at X on to something or is X one big marketing stunt for Alphabet (the Google parent company)? It looks like X is an attempt to divert attention from the fact that Alphabet still relies on advertising for 80%+ of its revenues and, despite a few decades of trying, has not been able to truly diversify its business. An unnamed executive said it well in a story on Bloomberg: “No one wants to face the reality that this is an advertising company with a bunch of hobbies.”

In 2015, Ruth Porat, an accomplished financial services industry executive, joined Google as its CFO. Porat was big on accountability and divisions like X had to start paying for services it was getting from other Google divisions. Imagine the (fictitious) dialog between financial disciplinarian Porat and the pony-tailed scientist Teller:

With Porat as the new fiduciary sheriff in town, it didn’t take long for many X projects to be shut down or spun off as separate companies. If they are such good ideas, go attract your own funding for them.

One of the X products that did get some traction was Google Glass. Glass was the integration of a computer into eyeglasses. Why am I pointing out Glass? Because it was different than most of the other projects coming out of X in that Glass was not a moonshot, but an incremental improvement on existing technologies.

Glass allowed the user to speak commands (like Siri or Alexa) to retrieve information and display it on head-up display (like many automobile systems). If you were watching a basketball game and wanted to know Steph Curry’s three-point shooting percentage in the second half of road games, just ask and Glass would put the data in front of you. I tried Glass and thought it was pretty useful and would have liked to see it make it.

Google is one of the most successful companies ever. Of the many people I know that work there, every one of them is intelligent, articulate, and interesting to be around. We need innovation and out-of-the box thinking, but if Google can’t manufacture moonshots, who can?

Going for the Moonshot is a Tectonic Decision.