THE CAUTIONARY
Challenging conventional wisdom.
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What is a single point of failure?
MoviePass was doomed from the start
Most failures are predictable and not due to random negative events
Hint: It's not page views or likes
Hint: don't make it one-sided
The answer is yes, mostly.
HP bought Autonomy, then the shouting started
Could mighty JP Morgan really be a victim?
It taught me why FTX collapsed
But it must be good
Hint: It's not a Tesla
AI does not scale like a software business, or a hit song
Precisely speaking, it was a lie
Big AI may be repeating historical mistakes
Lessons from the past are ominous
Massive bet on a product nobody needed
